Top 20 Prospects: Miami Marlins
1. Jose Fernandez, RHP, A
Fernandez has the potential to be an ace and could move quickly
for a high schooler given his lack of ultimate projection and his already strong
present stuff.
2. Christian Yelich, OF, A-
Yelich can do it all at the plate and in the field. If he finds a little more power in
the bat, he's got all of the tools.
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF, B
There are some contact issues and plate discipline concerns
here, but Ozuna certainly has 3 stand out tools in the power, speed and arm.
Power stands out big.
4. Adam Conley, LHP, B
A 2nd round pick out of Washington State in 2011,
Conley has been excellent this year statistically, but is more of a mid rotation
starter going forward.
5. Andrew Heaney, LHP, B
Classic pitchability lefty, has been lauded for his excellent control and command,
but it will be interesting to see how his only average stuff plays against higher level hitters.
6. Zack Cox, 3B, B
Cox’s upside is that of a solid regular, not an all-star third baseman as many thought when he
was coming out of college. He clearly still needs more seasoning, but is very close to being a
solid hitter at the big league level.
7. J.T. Realmuto, C, B/B-
Good all around defensive catcher. Had a breakout year at the plate last year,
but has followed that up with a less than stellar showing so far this year. He has a very impatient approach, but I
would expect the average to pick up, as he looks like a solid hitter, with some
pop and basestealing ability.
8. Charlie Lowell, LHP, B-
Lowell has shown some good strikeout potential this year,
albeit against mostly younger competition. Control is a bit shaky, would like
to see how he fares against higher level hitters.
9. Jose Urena, RHP, B-
I really like him for some reason. Shows solid strikeout
potential and throws strikes.
10. Kolby Copeland, OF, C+
Copeland was generating a lot of buzz heading into draft day this year
and certainly has a potentially special bat.
11. Avery Romero, INF/C, C+
Romero is interesting because of his versatility on the
diamond and his ability with the bat, but we will need to see where he ends up
on the diamond before we know how valuable the bat will be. He isn’t a favorite of
ours.
12. Chad James, LHP, C+
After being a selected in the first round in 2009, James has never quite lived up to the
hype, but he is still young and time for improvement.
13. Noah Perio, 2B, C+
14. Mason Hope, RHP, C+
A high school teammate of Archie Bradley of the Diamondbacks
organization, Hope has some upside as well, but is more of a mid rotation or
probably a bullpen guy going forward.
15. Kyle Jensen, OF, C+
A lot of swing and miss to his game, but he’ll take a walk and
has good power potential.
16. Austin Dean, OF, C+
May end up at a corner infield position going forward, but is
being used all over the outfield at this stage. He is a good hitter with very
good power potential.
17. Mark Canha, 1B/3B, C+
Solid hitter with a good approach, some power, if he moves to
third the bat could be more valuable.
18. Austin Nola, SS/3B, C+
Solid all around player, has a chance to move fairly quickly
through the system due to his advanced approach and game overall.
19. Brian Flynn, LHP, C+
20. Grant Dayton, LHP, C+
A full time reliever before this year, Dayton made some starts
this year, before switching back to the bullpen. He looks like a solid middle
reliever, at worst a LOOGY at the big league level, but he is fairly old for his
level at this stage.
21. Ron Miller, 1B/3B, C+
Will always have swing and miss to his game, but the power
could be special. A favorite of ours here due to said power.
22. Jesus Solorzano, OF, C+
Speedy outfield type, could develop some decent power as he
matures.
23. Austin Barnes, 2B/C, C+
Contact hitter with very good gap power, who I liked a lot,
coming out of Arizona State, even with his small stature. Bat will be valuable
at either second or catcher, would like to see a promotion before year’s
end.
Fernandez has the potential to be an ace and could move quickly
for a high schooler given his lack of ultimate projection and his already strong
present stuff.
2. Christian Yelich, OF, A-
Yelich can do it all at the plate and in the field. If he finds a little more power in
the bat, he's got all of the tools.
3. Marcell Ozuna, OF, B
There are some contact issues and plate discipline concerns
here, but Ozuna certainly has 3 stand out tools in the power, speed and arm.
Power stands out big.
4. Adam Conley, LHP, B
A 2nd round pick out of Washington State in 2011,
Conley has been excellent this year statistically, but is more of a mid rotation
starter going forward.
5. Andrew Heaney, LHP, B
Classic pitchability lefty, has been lauded for his excellent control and command,
but it will be interesting to see how his only average stuff plays against higher level hitters.
6. Zack Cox, 3B, B
Cox’s upside is that of a solid regular, not an all-star third baseman as many thought when he
was coming out of college. He clearly still needs more seasoning, but is very close to being a
solid hitter at the big league level.
7. J.T. Realmuto, C, B/B-
Good all around defensive catcher. Had a breakout year at the plate last year,
but has followed that up with a less than stellar showing so far this year. He has a very impatient approach, but I
would expect the average to pick up, as he looks like a solid hitter, with some
pop and basestealing ability.
8. Charlie Lowell, LHP, B-
Lowell has shown some good strikeout potential this year,
albeit against mostly younger competition. Control is a bit shaky, would like
to see how he fares against higher level hitters.
9. Jose Urena, RHP, B-
I really like him for some reason. Shows solid strikeout
potential and throws strikes.
10. Kolby Copeland, OF, C+
Copeland was generating a lot of buzz heading into draft day this year
and certainly has a potentially special bat.
11. Avery Romero, INF/C, C+
Romero is interesting because of his versatility on the
diamond and his ability with the bat, but we will need to see where he ends up
on the diamond before we know how valuable the bat will be. He isn’t a favorite of
ours.
12. Chad James, LHP, C+
After being a selected in the first round in 2009, James has never quite lived up to the
hype, but he is still young and time for improvement.
13. Noah Perio, 2B, C+
14. Mason Hope, RHP, C+
A high school teammate of Archie Bradley of the Diamondbacks
organization, Hope has some upside as well, but is more of a mid rotation or
probably a bullpen guy going forward.
15. Kyle Jensen, OF, C+
A lot of swing and miss to his game, but he’ll take a walk and
has good power potential.
16. Austin Dean, OF, C+
May end up at a corner infield position going forward, but is
being used all over the outfield at this stage. He is a good hitter with very
good power potential.
17. Mark Canha, 1B/3B, C+
Solid hitter with a good approach, some power, if he moves to
third the bat could be more valuable.
18. Austin Nola, SS/3B, C+
Solid all around player, has a chance to move fairly quickly
through the system due to his advanced approach and game overall.
19. Brian Flynn, LHP, C+
20. Grant Dayton, LHP, C+
A full time reliever before this year, Dayton made some starts
this year, before switching back to the bullpen. He looks like a solid middle
reliever, at worst a LOOGY at the big league level, but he is fairly old for his
level at this stage.
21. Ron Miller, 1B/3B, C+
Will always have swing and miss to his game, but the power
could be special. A favorite of ours here due to said power.
22. Jesus Solorzano, OF, C+
Speedy outfield type, could develop some decent power as he
matures.
23. Austin Barnes, 2B/C, C+
Contact hitter with very good gap power, who I liked a lot,
coming out of Arizona State, even with his small stature. Bat will be valuable
at either second or catcher, would like to see a promotion before year’s
end.
2012 Draft Review: Miami Marlins
Overall Draft Grade: B/B-
The Marlins balanced out a "safer" choice in Heaney at the top with a couple of intriguing, high-risk prep bats in Romero, Copeland and Dean. Their class has nice balance after that as they followed the high school products with several signable college guys, highlighted by Nola from LSU. Miller is a nice gamble in the 10th and the Marlins did well here balancing out upside and signable, less risky selections.
1st Round (9): Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State University (JR), 6'2", 175
Heaney is a classic pitchability lefty who used his solid stuff and excellent control/command to put up great numbers at Ok. State in 2012. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he complements it with two secondary offerings, a curve and a change-up, that have the potential to be solid-average at the next level. Heaney doesn't have a very high ceiling, but he should be quick to the Majors and is a fairly safe bet to hold a spot in the middle of the Miami rotation.
The Marlins balanced out a "safer" choice in Heaney at the top with a couple of intriguing, high-risk prep bats in Romero, Copeland and Dean. Their class has nice balance after that as they followed the high school products with several signable college guys, highlighted by Nola from LSU. Miller is a nice gamble in the 10th and the Marlins did well here balancing out upside and signable, less risky selections.
1st Round (9): Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State University (JR), 6'2", 175
Heaney is a classic pitchability lefty who used his solid stuff and excellent control/command to put up great numbers at Ok. State in 2012. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he complements it with two secondary offerings, a curve and a change-up, that have the potential to be solid-average at the next level. Heaney doesn't have a very high ceiling, but he should be quick to the Majors and is a fairly safe bet to hold a spot in the middle of the Miami rotation.
3rd Round (104): Avery Romero, SS, Pedro Menendez HS (FL), 5'11", 195, R/R
While some doubt that Romero has the quickness and athleticism to stay at short, the Marlins announced him there and look like they will try him in the middle infield at the next level. He does have a strong arm that will play almost anywhere on the diamond, but Miami is buying the bat here which has shown good potential to hit for average and a little power.
Round 3 Comp (127): Kolby Copeland, OF, Parkway HS (LA), 6'0", 190, L/R
Copeland was getting a lot of buzz and even a few comparisons to local prep product Courtney Hawkins heading into draft day. He certainly doesn't have as much power projection or pure athleticism as Hawkins, but Copeland could be a better hitter for average at this point and he also throws and runs well. He profiles as a solid, toolsy high school outfielder who will likely end up as a left fielder at the next level.
4th Round (137): Austin Dean, OF, Klein Collins HS (TX), 6'1", 190, R/R
Dean's calling card is his well above-average bat speed and accordingly, his power potential interested a lot of teams. His mechanics are best described as "choppy" and he's not the prettiest player on the field, but when he connects with the ball it absolutely flies. Dean is a project here and his defense won't be anything above average anywhere in the outfield, but the bat speed is rare and very projectable.
While some doubt that Romero has the quickness and athleticism to stay at short, the Marlins announced him there and look like they will try him in the middle infield at the next level. He does have a strong arm that will play almost anywhere on the diamond, but Miami is buying the bat here which has shown good potential to hit for average and a little power.
Round 3 Comp (127): Kolby Copeland, OF, Parkway HS (LA), 6'0", 190, L/R
Copeland was getting a lot of buzz and even a few comparisons to local prep product Courtney Hawkins heading into draft day. He certainly doesn't have as much power projection or pure athleticism as Hawkins, but Copeland could be a better hitter for average at this point and he also throws and runs well. He profiles as a solid, toolsy high school outfielder who will likely end up as a left fielder at the next level.
4th Round (137): Austin Dean, OF, Klein Collins HS (TX), 6'1", 190, R/R
Dean's calling card is his well above-average bat speed and accordingly, his power potential interested a lot of teams. His mechanics are best described as "choppy" and he's not the prettiest player on the field, but when he connects with the ball it absolutely flies. Dean is a project here and his defense won't be anything above average anywhere in the outfield, but the bat speed is rare and very projectable.
5th Round (167): Austin Nola, SS, Louisiana State University (SR), 6'0", 185, R/R
Nola should be pretty signable as a senior out of LSU. He shows a good, disciplined approach at the plate and while he doesn't project much power, he can handle the bat and will put the ball in play. He's a solid defender at short who will stick there at the next level thanks to good actions and a strong arm.
6th Round (197): Anthony Gomez, SS, Vanderbilt University (JR), 6'0", 185, R/R
7th Round (227): Ryan Newell, RHP, Shorter University (JR)
8th Round (257): Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Tennessee University (JR), 6'5", 215
9th Round (287): Nicholas Wittgren, RHP, Purdue University (JR), 6'3", 210
10th Round (317): Ron Miller, 3B, Junipero Serra HS, 5'11", 205, R/R
The Marlins obviously like pure bat speed as their selections of Dean in the 4th and Miller here suggest. Miller is never going to be anything defensively and he's not much of an athlete, but Miller can swing a bat very, very quickly and projects quite a bit of power. He's definitely a wild card and is certainly risky, but the raw bat speed and power projection make Miller an interesting follow.
Nola should be pretty signable as a senior out of LSU. He shows a good, disciplined approach at the plate and while he doesn't project much power, he can handle the bat and will put the ball in play. He's a solid defender at short who will stick there at the next level thanks to good actions and a strong arm.
6th Round (197): Anthony Gomez, SS, Vanderbilt University (JR), 6'0", 185, R/R
7th Round (227): Ryan Newell, RHP, Shorter University (JR)
8th Round (257): Drew Steckenrider, RHP, Tennessee University (JR), 6'5", 215
9th Round (287): Nicholas Wittgren, RHP, Purdue University (JR), 6'3", 210
10th Round (317): Ron Miller, 3B, Junipero Serra HS, 5'11", 205, R/R
The Marlins obviously like pure bat speed as their selections of Dean in the 4th and Miller here suggest. Miller is never going to be anything defensively and he's not much of an athlete, but Miller can swing a bat very, very quickly and projects quite a bit of power. He's definitely a wild card and is certainly risky, but the raw bat speed and power projection make Miller an interesting follow.
Marlins Draft Strategy: An Overview
The Marlins have shown a tendency to select high school players who show good projectability with their first pick and follow that up with a college pitcher and some more risky high school selections in the next rounds. With 10 picks and $4.935 million to spend in the first 10 rounds this year, a continuation of that plan seems relatively feasible. We agree with the varied reports that have them selecting a high upside outfielder such as Almora or Dahl or an arm such as McCullers with their first selection at 9. Afterwards, however, aside from the likely college pitcher in the second round, their recent strategy is likely to change, as the most money for a pick that they would have after this would be $367,200, assuming they pay full slot to the first two picks.
If they want to continue taking premium high school talent that falls to their next couple spots, they would surely have to take college seniors or JUCO players willing to sign for well below slot the rest of the way. This has been their strategy of late, signing two players in the top 10 rounds to bonuses of lower than $100,000 in both 2010 and 2011, while signing many others in the $100,000-$200,000 range, freeing up room for the more expensive high school players. This may just be coincidence, but over the last three years the Marlins have taken a pitcher with their second selection and a hitter with their third selection. If this is somewhat of a draft strategy that the Marlins employ, then it would appear as though they go with the best player available with their first pick regardless of position and then go for a specific position later on. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see who the Marlins believe is the best player still on the board at pick 9.
Mock Draft Selections: Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy HS (FL)
If they want to continue taking premium high school talent that falls to their next couple spots, they would surely have to take college seniors or JUCO players willing to sign for well below slot the rest of the way. This has been their strategy of late, signing two players in the top 10 rounds to bonuses of lower than $100,000 in both 2010 and 2011, while signing many others in the $100,000-$200,000 range, freeing up room for the more expensive high school players. This may just be coincidence, but over the last three years the Marlins have taken a pitcher with their second selection and a hitter with their third selection. If this is somewhat of a draft strategy that the Marlins employ, then it would appear as though they go with the best player available with their first pick regardless of position and then go for a specific position later on. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see who the Marlins believe is the best player still on the board at pick 9.
Mock Draft Selections: Albert Almora, OF, Mater Academy HS (FL)
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