Top 20 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies
1. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, B
Recently promoted to AAA. Hernandez can really hit and while he doesn’t have
much power he hits the gaps well which helps his good speed play up.
He isn’t the best basestealer, but can swipe a bag and plays good defense at
second.
2. Trevor May, RHP, B
There are some command struggles here, but an average two
starter or a good three starter is his ceiling.
3. Jesse Biddle, LHP, B
Has improved his control a bit this year, need to see if it carries over to
AA. More of a number 3 starter type.
4. Adam Morgan, LHP, B
Mid rotation type, mixes good stuff with good control and command.
5. Julio Rodriguez, RHP, B
Good stuff, command problems. Seems to be a theme in Philly.
6. Sebastian Valle, C, B-
Solid, but not great defensive catcher. There's some raw pop at
the plate, but the downside is a horrendous approach and woeful plate
discipline.
7. Brody Colvin, RHP, B-
Shifted to the bullpen for a couple outings this season and it
seemed to help. Recently promoted to AA and is a mid rotation type going
forward.
8. Larry Greene, OF, B-
Huge power potential, but will always have swing and miss to his
game. May be limited to first base going forward.
9. Carlos Tocci, OF, B-
Can hit, run and play very good defense in center. Has huge
potential, but is only 16 and is a ways away, even with his strong showing thus
far in the GCL against older competition.
10. Jon Pettibone, RHP, C+/B-
Whenever I hear his name I think of Joe Blanton. He will eat
innings at the big league level at worst and will most likely find a place at
the back end of a rotation.
11. Austin Wright, LHP, C+/B-
Mid rotation type, I like his future.
12. Tommy Joseph, C, C+
The Cal League may have inflated his stats last year, but he
does have a power bat from the catcher position, even though he may never hit
for a high average or OBP. His defense has developed into at least above average
to possibly plus behind the plate and if the bat continues to develop he could
rank higher. Recently acquired in the Hunter Pence
deal.
13. Ethan Martin, RHP, C+
Martin still has the nasty stuff that made him the number 15 overall selection in the
2008 draft. His walks and hits are down from the past, and the walks being down
is especially pleasing to see. He still has time to be a good mid rotation
starter, with a possibility to be a number 2, but he may end up in the bullpen
as well. Recently acquired in the Shane Victorino
deal.
14. Andrew Pullin, OF, C+
Five tool potential type player, who we profiled better in right
field. Has played mostly left since entering pro ball. Shows very good potential
with the bat.
15. Roman Quinn, SS, C+
Not a good defensive shortstop, but has 80 speed and can hit the
gaps where he can stretch singles to doubles and doubles to triples. Still very
raw in all facets of the game.
16. Dylan Cozens, OF, C+
Excellent athlete, has big time potential with his power bat.
17. Mitch Gueller, RHP, C+
High upside projectable arm, big risk/reward type.
18. Zachary Green, SS/3B, C+
Needs to improve his consistency, but has very high potential.
Will in all likelihood move to third full time as he moves
up.
19. Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP, C+
Popped onto the scene with a very strong campaign last year, has
carried that over to this year. Now full time out of the bullpen, has excellent
strikeout potential and has spent most of the year at AA with
success.
20. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, C+
Strikeout stuff to be late inning reliever, but poor control and command limit his ceiling.
21. Shane Watson, RHP, C+
Looks like a potential late inning reliever to us, but has the
potential to sit in the middle of a big league
rotation.
22. Kelly Dugan, OF/1B, C+
Very good hitter with big power, high strikeout rate is a
concern, but he can rake. May be limited to first, which would definitely hurt
his value.
23. Kevin Brady, RHP, C+
Simply knows how to pitch. Could be nice out of the back end of
a rotation.
24. William Carmona, 3B, C+
Can flat out hit, question remains how much power he develops.
Plays a very poor third base.
25. Maikel Franco, 3B, C+
I’m confused by him, want to like him offensively, but there's
just not enough there. He has some power and a chance to hit to go along with a
good third base.
26. Aaron Altherr, OF, C+
Toolsy outfield type.
27. Tyler Cloyd, RHP, C+
Good statistical performer in the minors, is only a back end of
the rotation type.
28. Seth Rosin, RHP, C+
Should move up to AA soon after the Hunter Pence trade, has good
strikeout potential out of the bullpen.
29. Josh Ludy, C, C+
Bat first catcher, could be a solid player.
Recently promoted to AAA. Hernandez can really hit and while he doesn’t have
much power he hits the gaps well which helps his good speed play up.
He isn’t the best basestealer, but can swipe a bag and plays good defense at
second.
2. Trevor May, RHP, B
There are some command struggles here, but an average two
starter or a good three starter is his ceiling.
3. Jesse Biddle, LHP, B
Has improved his control a bit this year, need to see if it carries over to
AA. More of a number 3 starter type.
4. Adam Morgan, LHP, B
Mid rotation type, mixes good stuff with good control and command.
5. Julio Rodriguez, RHP, B
Good stuff, command problems. Seems to be a theme in Philly.
6. Sebastian Valle, C, B-
Solid, but not great defensive catcher. There's some raw pop at
the plate, but the downside is a horrendous approach and woeful plate
discipline.
7. Brody Colvin, RHP, B-
Shifted to the bullpen for a couple outings this season and it
seemed to help. Recently promoted to AA and is a mid rotation type going
forward.
8. Larry Greene, OF, B-
Huge power potential, but will always have swing and miss to his
game. May be limited to first base going forward.
9. Carlos Tocci, OF, B-
Can hit, run and play very good defense in center. Has huge
potential, but is only 16 and is a ways away, even with his strong showing thus
far in the GCL against older competition.
10. Jon Pettibone, RHP, C+/B-
Whenever I hear his name I think of Joe Blanton. He will eat
innings at the big league level at worst and will most likely find a place at
the back end of a rotation.
11. Austin Wright, LHP, C+/B-
Mid rotation type, I like his future.
12. Tommy Joseph, C, C+
The Cal League may have inflated his stats last year, but he
does have a power bat from the catcher position, even though he may never hit
for a high average or OBP. His defense has developed into at least above average
to possibly plus behind the plate and if the bat continues to develop he could
rank higher. Recently acquired in the Hunter Pence
deal.
13. Ethan Martin, RHP, C+
Martin still has the nasty stuff that made him the number 15 overall selection in the
2008 draft. His walks and hits are down from the past, and the walks being down
is especially pleasing to see. He still has time to be a good mid rotation
starter, with a possibility to be a number 2, but he may end up in the bullpen
as well. Recently acquired in the Shane Victorino
deal.
14. Andrew Pullin, OF, C+
Five tool potential type player, who we profiled better in right
field. Has played mostly left since entering pro ball. Shows very good potential
with the bat.
15. Roman Quinn, SS, C+
Not a good defensive shortstop, but has 80 speed and can hit the
gaps where he can stretch singles to doubles and doubles to triples. Still very
raw in all facets of the game.
16. Dylan Cozens, OF, C+
Excellent athlete, has big time potential with his power bat.
17. Mitch Gueller, RHP, C+
High upside projectable arm, big risk/reward type.
18. Zachary Green, SS/3B, C+
Needs to improve his consistency, but has very high potential.
Will in all likelihood move to third full time as he moves
up.
19. Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP, C+
Popped onto the scene with a very strong campaign last year, has
carried that over to this year. Now full time out of the bullpen, has excellent
strikeout potential and has spent most of the year at AA with
success.
20. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, C+
Strikeout stuff to be late inning reliever, but poor control and command limit his ceiling.
21. Shane Watson, RHP, C+
Looks like a potential late inning reliever to us, but has the
potential to sit in the middle of a big league
rotation.
22. Kelly Dugan, OF/1B, C+
Very good hitter with big power, high strikeout rate is a
concern, but he can rake. May be limited to first, which would definitely hurt
his value.
23. Kevin Brady, RHP, C+
Simply knows how to pitch. Could be nice out of the back end of
a rotation.
24. William Carmona, 3B, C+
Can flat out hit, question remains how much power he develops.
Plays a very poor third base.
25. Maikel Franco, 3B, C+
I’m confused by him, want to like him offensively, but there's
just not enough there. He has some power and a chance to hit to go along with a
good third base.
26. Aaron Altherr, OF, C+
Toolsy outfield type.
27. Tyler Cloyd, RHP, C+
Good statistical performer in the minors, is only a back end of
the rotation type.
28. Seth Rosin, RHP, C+
Should move up to AA soon after the Hunter Pence trade, has good
strikeout potential out of the bullpen.
29. Josh Ludy, C, C+
Bat first catcher, could be a solid player.
2012 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies
Overall Draft Grade: C+
This is an interesting class filled with a surprising number of prep products at the top. Shane Watson is a solid pick at 40, as some projected him going late in the first round. Gueller and Rash are intriguing prep arms who don't have electric stuff, but each has the potential to fill a spot in a rotation at the next level. Cozens came out of nowhere here and he's a huge risk but he has plenty of power potential. Perkins, Milner, Brady and Carmona are all interesting college products who are good value in the later rounds. There's not too much to be wild about here, but there's some depth throughout the class.
Supplemental Round (40): Shane Watson, RHP, Lakewood HS (CA), 6'4", 200
Watson is a strong high school arm with a bit of projectability to go along with his strong present stuff. He's a two-pitch guy right now and has shown both a fastball and a curve that profile as solid above-average at the next level. The development of a serviceable change-up will seal his fate as a starter, but he could be a useful reliever if starting doesn't work out.
This is an interesting class filled with a surprising number of prep products at the top. Shane Watson is a solid pick at 40, as some projected him going late in the first round. Gueller and Rash are intriguing prep arms who don't have electric stuff, but each has the potential to fill a spot in a rotation at the next level. Cozens came out of nowhere here and he's a huge risk but he has plenty of power potential. Perkins, Milner, Brady and Carmona are all interesting college products who are good value in the later rounds. There's not too much to be wild about here, but there's some depth throughout the class.
Supplemental Round (40): Shane Watson, RHP, Lakewood HS (CA), 6'4", 200
Watson is a strong high school arm with a bit of projectability to go along with his strong present stuff. He's a two-pitch guy right now and has shown both a fastball and a curve that profile as solid above-average at the next level. The development of a serviceable change-up will seal his fate as a starter, but he could be a useful reliever if starting doesn't work out.
Supplemental Round (54): Mitch Gueller, RHP, W. F. West HS (WA), 6'3", 205
Gueller is an athletic righty who was an excellent two-way player in high school. His future is clearly on the mound, however, where he shows a solid two-pitch mix. His fastball sits 91-93 and he complements it with a solid breaking ball that has flashed some potential. There's some projection left in his frame and while this may be a slight overdraft, Gueller is an intriguing high school arm who could benefit from focusing exclusively on pitching.
Supplemental Round (77): Dylan Cozens, OF, Chaparral HS (AZ), 6'6", 235, L/L
Cozens, a name not on the Baseball America Top 500, is a big risk here, but the Phillies are buying the power potential. His mechanics are unorthodox, but Cozens used his big, strong frame to hit 19 HRs his senior year. A two-sport star, Cozens was committed to the University of Arizona as a defensive end, but will reportedly sign with Philadelphia.
2nd Round (95): Alec Rash, RHP, Adel Desoto Minburn HS (IA), 6'5", 185
Rash has a projectable frame and some solid present stuff. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he should gain a little more once he finds more consistency in his mechanics. He shows a curveball with potential and a change-up that is more refined than that of most high schoolers. Rash doesn't have huge potential, but he's an intriguing candidate for a spot in the middle of rotation.
Gueller is an athletic righty who was an excellent two-way player in high school. His future is clearly on the mound, however, where he shows a solid two-pitch mix. His fastball sits 91-93 and he complements it with a solid breaking ball that has flashed some potential. There's some projection left in his frame and while this may be a slight overdraft, Gueller is an intriguing high school arm who could benefit from focusing exclusively on pitching.
Supplemental Round (77): Dylan Cozens, OF, Chaparral HS (AZ), 6'6", 235, L/L
Cozens, a name not on the Baseball America Top 500, is a big risk here, but the Phillies are buying the power potential. His mechanics are unorthodox, but Cozens used his big, strong frame to hit 19 HRs his senior year. A two-sport star, Cozens was committed to the University of Arizona as a defensive end, but will reportedly sign with Philadelphia.
2nd Round (95): Alec Rash, RHP, Adel Desoto Minburn HS (IA), 6'5", 185
Rash has a projectable frame and some solid present stuff. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he should gain a little more once he finds more consistency in his mechanics. He shows a curveball with potential and a change-up that is more refined than that of most high schoolers. Rash doesn't have huge potential, but he's an intriguing candidate for a spot in the middle of rotation.
3rd Round (125): Zachary Green, SS, Jesuit HS (CA), 6'3", 185, R/R
Green is an athlete, but Baseball America has him listed as a third baseman and most talent evaluators agree that he won't stick at shortstop. There's power in both his bat and his arm, but he hasn't been too consistent up to this point.
4th Round (158): Christopher Serritella, 1B, Southern Illinois University (SR), 6'3", 205, L/R
Serritella profiles as the epitome of a college first baseman with some power and a good, advanced approach. He's an easy senior sign and should sign for underslot with his money going toward all of the prep products before him.
5th Round (188): Andrew Pullin, OF, Centralia HS (WA), 6'0", 185, L/R
Pullin has shown some power potential and barrels the ball up consistently. He's a strong kid who profiles in right field, especially if he can develop a bit more power down the road.
6th Round (218): Cameron Perkins, 3B, Purdue University (JR), 6'5", 205, R/R
7th Round (248): Hoby Milner, LHP, Texas University (JR), 6'3", 165
8th Round (278): Josh Ludy, C, Baylor University (SR), 5'10, 220, R/R
9th Round (308): Jordan Guth, RHP, University of Wisconsin-Millwaukee (JR), 6'5", 200
10th Round (338): Kevin Brady, RHP, Clemson University (SR), 6'3", 220
11th Round (368): William Carmona, 3B, Stony Brook University (JR), 6'0", 230, S/R
Notable Later Round Selections
37th Round: Daniel Starwalt, RHP, Granite Hills HS (CA)
This Stanford commit is probably nearly unsignable, but is a very interesting follow.
Green is an athlete, but Baseball America has him listed as a third baseman and most talent evaluators agree that he won't stick at shortstop. There's power in both his bat and his arm, but he hasn't been too consistent up to this point.
4th Round (158): Christopher Serritella, 1B, Southern Illinois University (SR), 6'3", 205, L/R
Serritella profiles as the epitome of a college first baseman with some power and a good, advanced approach. He's an easy senior sign and should sign for underslot with his money going toward all of the prep products before him.
5th Round (188): Andrew Pullin, OF, Centralia HS (WA), 6'0", 185, L/R
Pullin has shown some power potential and barrels the ball up consistently. He's a strong kid who profiles in right field, especially if he can develop a bit more power down the road.
6th Round (218): Cameron Perkins, 3B, Purdue University (JR), 6'5", 205, R/R
7th Round (248): Hoby Milner, LHP, Texas University (JR), 6'3", 165
8th Round (278): Josh Ludy, C, Baylor University (SR), 5'10, 220, R/R
9th Round (308): Jordan Guth, RHP, University of Wisconsin-Millwaukee (JR), 6'5", 200
10th Round (338): Kevin Brady, RHP, Clemson University (SR), 6'3", 220
11th Round (368): William Carmona, 3B, Stony Brook University (JR), 6'0", 230, S/R
Notable Later Round Selections
37th Round: Daniel Starwalt, RHP, Granite Hills HS (CA)
This Stanford commit is probably nearly unsignable, but is a very interesting follow.
Phillies Draft Philosophy: An Overview
The Phillies have a penchant for strong athletes and high school arms at the top of their drafts and they often pair these picks with fairly established college talent. This year, the Phillies aren’t in an ideal draft position with only $4.916 million to spend on 12 picks in the first 10 rounds. Furthermore, their first selection this year is at #40 in the supplemental round. Given these limitations, we don’t see the Phillies taking too many chances, even though they have shown a tendency to do so in the past: Two of the last three years, they have taken high school players with their top two picks, while each of the last three years they have taken a high schooler with their first selection. We don’t see the latter changing: the Phillies could easily go with a toolsy high schooler with their first selection, as evidenced by our selection of Lewis Brinson in this spot in our mock draft. It will take more than the $1.291 million allotted to the 40th pick, however, to sign a player of Brinson’s caliber, and the Phillies would have to draft accordingly in the subsequent rounds.
In fact, the Phillies showed this strategy last year when they signed Adam Morgan, a senior from Alabama, for a below slot bonus in the 3rd round after signing Larry Greene and Roman Quinn for $1 million and $775,000 in the supplemental and second round respectively. Accordingly, the Phillies will most likely be looking for high ceiling talent at the top of their draft, followed by cheaper college players, a strategy that will both follow their past draft trends and fall within the guidelines of the new CBA.
Mock Draft Selection: Lewis Brinson, OF, Coral Springs HS (FL)
In fact, the Phillies showed this strategy last year when they signed Adam Morgan, a senior from Alabama, for a below slot bonus in the 3rd round after signing Larry Greene and Roman Quinn for $1 million and $775,000 in the supplemental and second round respectively. Accordingly, the Phillies will most likely be looking for high ceiling talent at the top of their draft, followed by cheaper college players, a strategy that will both follow their past draft trends and fall within the guidelines of the new CBA.
Mock Draft Selection: Lewis Brinson, OF, Coral Springs HS (FL)
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