Top 20 Prospects: Seattle Mariners
1. Taijuan Walker, RHP, A
A two way star in high school, Walker has done nothing but show his incredible athleticism on the mound since entering pro ball, yielding a combination of stuff, size, and command that screams ace starter potential.
2. Danny Hultzen, LHP, A-
Hultzen may not have the upside that Walker has, but he is not far away from making his major league debut. While his control has not been as good as advertised, his stuff has been impressive and looks to be a very good number 2 starter at the next level.
3. Nick Franklin, SS, B+
Franklin has been a favorite of mine for quite some time now, as it’s hard to not like middle infielders who can really hit. He fell down some boards last year with a less than stellar performance in the Cal League, but has been very impressive with the bat at AA this year. Even though his pop has not been quite where it was two years ago, he’s still showing very good gap power and speed--a very intriguing combination.
4. James Paxton, LHP, B+
Paxton has very good stuff, but appears to be more of an inconsistent number 2 or solid number 3 starter due to his lack of command. It hasn't improved this year and he sports a 6.2 BB/9 thus far.
5. Mike Zunino, C, B+
Zunino has not signed yet, but we're assuming he will soon after the end of the College World Series. It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with him, as they have Jesus Montero behind the plate for years to come and Zunino could move quickly.
6. Phillips Castillo, OF, B-
Castillo is very young and very raw and it shows in his approach as he struck out 61 times in 48 games in rookie ball last year. Regardless, Castillo has one of the highest ceilings in the system with the potential to hit for average and power with some good speed. He will most likely end up in left field.
7. Brad Miller, SS, B-
Somewhat underrated after an extremely successful career at Clemson, Miller has done nothing but hit in college and in pro ball. Through 81 career minor league games he has hit .340 with 9 homers, 4 triples, 28 doubles, 14 steals and 46/61 BB:K ratio. Double those and you have a very impressive 162 game average. The problem with Miller hasn’t been with the bat, however, as his glove has never been so hot, which may force a position switch, making the bat less valuable.
8. Francisco Martinez, 3B, B-
Martinez was very impressive with the bat last year as a 20 year old in AA, with the exception of his 23/104 BB:K rate over 124 games. This year he has not been as impressive, while repeating the level, but has shown better discipline, with a 25/49 BB:K rate through 58 games. His defense has been average at best at third throughout his career, but has been better statistically this year.
9. Edwin Diaz, RHP, C+
Diaz is a very raw, but power arm, who certainly has some potential going forward. At this point he mostly just has very good arm strength.
10. Vincent Catricala, 3B, C+
Catricala cruised through his first 2.5 minor league seasons, batting over .300 at every level from rookie ball through AA, culminating in his 62 game stop at AA where he hit .347 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and 9 steals, with an OPS over 1.000. He has never been a good defensive third baseman and a move to either 1B or RF would certainly limit his value, but after dabbling around the diamond he has exclusively played third this year at AAA, as a 23 year old, where he has shown marginal statistical improvement. His bat, on the other hand, has not been quite as good, with a triple slash line at .224/.275/.343 and only 2 steals through 64 games. He is hitting .333 (7/21) in his last 6 games with 2 homers and 2 doubles, so he may be showing signs of life.
11. Tyler Pike, LHP, C+
13. Guillermo Pimentel, OF, C+
14. Victor Sanchez, RHP, C+
15. Martin Peguero, SS, C+
16. Leon Landry, OF, C+ (approach questions, can hit and run with gap power)
17. Stefen Romero, 2B, C+
18. Carlos Triunfel, SS, C+
19. Tyler Marlette, C, C+
20. Jabari Blash, OF, C+
21. Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, C+
22. Timmy Lopes, SS/2B, C+
A two way star in high school, Walker has done nothing but show his incredible athleticism on the mound since entering pro ball, yielding a combination of stuff, size, and command that screams ace starter potential.
2. Danny Hultzen, LHP, A-
Hultzen may not have the upside that Walker has, but he is not far away from making his major league debut. While his control has not been as good as advertised, his stuff has been impressive and looks to be a very good number 2 starter at the next level.
3. Nick Franklin, SS, B+
Franklin has been a favorite of mine for quite some time now, as it’s hard to not like middle infielders who can really hit. He fell down some boards last year with a less than stellar performance in the Cal League, but has been very impressive with the bat at AA this year. Even though his pop has not been quite where it was two years ago, he’s still showing very good gap power and speed--a very intriguing combination.
4. James Paxton, LHP, B+
Paxton has very good stuff, but appears to be more of an inconsistent number 2 or solid number 3 starter due to his lack of command. It hasn't improved this year and he sports a 6.2 BB/9 thus far.
5. Mike Zunino, C, B+
Zunino has not signed yet, but we're assuming he will soon after the end of the College World Series. It will be interesting to see what the Mariners do with him, as they have Jesus Montero behind the plate for years to come and Zunino could move quickly.
6. Phillips Castillo, OF, B-
Castillo is very young and very raw and it shows in his approach as he struck out 61 times in 48 games in rookie ball last year. Regardless, Castillo has one of the highest ceilings in the system with the potential to hit for average and power with some good speed. He will most likely end up in left field.
7. Brad Miller, SS, B-
Somewhat underrated after an extremely successful career at Clemson, Miller has done nothing but hit in college and in pro ball. Through 81 career minor league games he has hit .340 with 9 homers, 4 triples, 28 doubles, 14 steals and 46/61 BB:K ratio. Double those and you have a very impressive 162 game average. The problem with Miller hasn’t been with the bat, however, as his glove has never been so hot, which may force a position switch, making the bat less valuable.
8. Francisco Martinez, 3B, B-
Martinez was very impressive with the bat last year as a 20 year old in AA, with the exception of his 23/104 BB:K rate over 124 games. This year he has not been as impressive, while repeating the level, but has shown better discipline, with a 25/49 BB:K rate through 58 games. His defense has been average at best at third throughout his career, but has been better statistically this year.
9. Edwin Diaz, RHP, C+
Diaz is a very raw, but power arm, who certainly has some potential going forward. At this point he mostly just has very good arm strength.
10. Vincent Catricala, 3B, C+
Catricala cruised through his first 2.5 minor league seasons, batting over .300 at every level from rookie ball through AA, culminating in his 62 game stop at AA where he hit .347 with 11 homers, 29 doubles and 9 steals, with an OPS over 1.000. He has never been a good defensive third baseman and a move to either 1B or RF would certainly limit his value, but after dabbling around the diamond he has exclusively played third this year at AAA, as a 23 year old, where he has shown marginal statistical improvement. His bat, on the other hand, has not been quite as good, with a triple slash line at .224/.275/.343 and only 2 steals through 64 games. He is hitting .333 (7/21) in his last 6 games with 2 homers and 2 doubles, so he may be showing signs of life.
11. Tyler Pike, LHP, C+
13. Guillermo Pimentel, OF, C+
14. Victor Sanchez, RHP, C+
15. Martin Peguero, SS, C+
16. Leon Landry, OF, C+ (approach questions, can hit and run with gap power)
17. Stefen Romero, 2B, C+
18. Carlos Triunfel, SS, C+
19. Tyler Marlette, C, C+
20. Jabari Blash, OF, C+
21. Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, C+
22. Timmy Lopes, SS/2B, C+
2012 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners
Overall Draft Grade: B/B-
As noted in our draft strategy overview, with $8.233 million to spend on 11 picks in the first 10 rounds, the Mariners had a nice balance of financial flexibility and favorable draft position in 2012. Zunino was a solid choice at the top, and the M's did a decent job of mixing high school and college talent. While this draft definitely leans toward the safe side, picks like Edwin Diaz and Joe DeCarlo certainly provide some upside. Everyone listed should be signable, especially given thier significant budget. See below for pick-by-pick analysis of the first 10 rounds.
1st Round (3): Mike Zunino, C, Florida University (JR), 6'1", 220, R/R
Zunino was a consensus top talent coming into the draft and we like him a lot. He's a power bat who definitely has the chance to stick behind this dish at the next level. Despite less than stellar numbers within the SEC this year, Zunino has shown a strong bat with lift and some power potential at every level. He is a relatively "safe" pick here, though that's not necessarily a bad thing as he still brings a lot of value and solid upside for a college position player.
2nd Round (64) Joe DeCarlo, SS, Garnet Valley HS (PA), 6'1", 205, R/R
DeCarlo is interesting here. He's certainly not as high profile as many other people left on the board and the Mariners must really like him. He's not really a runner, and profiles more at 3rd, but according to multiple sources and a look at some video, there's power potential in the bat. This one left me scratching my head, but maybe the Mariners see something I don't. DeCarlo was 57th on the Baseball America Top 100 HS prospect list.
3rd Round: (98): Edwin Diaz, RHP, Caguas Military Academy (PR), 6'2" 160
Diaz isn't quite at the level of some other Puerto Rican talent in this year's class, but he's certainly an interesting prospect in his own right. He's raw, but the arm strength and velocity are definitely there, as he was touching the mid-90s at tournaments in Puerto Rico. His pitching skills and off-speed stuff are well behind the velocity, but you can dream on the arm strength. He's a project, but definitely an intriguing one in the third round.
DeCarlo is interesting here. He's certainly not as high profile as many other people left on the board and the Mariners must really like him. He's not really a runner, and profiles more at 3rd, but according to multiple sources and a look at some video, there's power potential in the bat. This one left me scratching my head, but maybe the Mariners see something I don't. DeCarlo was 57th on the Baseball America Top 100 HS prospect list.
3rd Round: (98): Edwin Diaz, RHP, Caguas Military Academy (PR), 6'2" 160
Diaz isn't quite at the level of some other Puerto Rican talent in this year's class, but he's certainly an interesting prospect in his own right. He's raw, but the arm strength and velocity are definitely there, as he was touching the mid-90s at tournaments in Puerto Rico. His pitching skills and off-speed stuff are well behind the velocity, but you can dream on the arm strength. He's a project, but definitely an intriguing one in the third round.
Comp Round B (126): Tyler Pike, LHP, Winter Haven HS (FL), 6'0", 180
Pike isn't going to blow you away with his stuff, but he is lauded for his good pitchability and command from the left side. He's refined for a high school lefty and the Florida State commit should be signable here. Pike has a smooth, compact, easy delivery and while he doesn't project too much more physically, he's very advanced for a high school arm.
4th Round (131): Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, Rutgers University (SR), 6'2", 210, R/R
Kivlehan is a fascinating story. A football player at Rutgers, he only picked up baseball during his senior season. One would expect him to struggle after having focused on an entirely different sport for all of his college career. Instead, Kivlehan hit .399/.484/.710 en route to winning the Big East Player of the Year award. There's not much video or information on him, but on the stats and story alone, Kivlehan is definitely a prospect to follow.
5th Round (161): Chris Taylor, SS, Virginia University (JR), 6'0", 170, R/R
Taylor is a defense first shortstop who has a lot of value on that side of the ball. He has good actions and hands at short and his plus speed adds to his good range. He can definitely stick there at the next level, but the bat is the question. Taylor is more of a gap-to-gap guy at this point, and he put up a .284/.383/.445 line this year to date at Virginia as their leadoff hitter. If the bat develops, he could earn a spot as a Major League shortstop in a few years.
6th Round (191): Timmy Lopes, SS, Edison HS (CA), 5'11", 180, R/R
Lopes is the younger brother of Christian, a 7th round selection in the Blue Jays organization. He has solid actions and range in the field, but his lack of plus arm strength may force a move to second in the future. He gets good reviews with the bat, while not projecting much power. He makes hard contact and squares the ball up and uses his above-average speed well.
7th Round (221) Taylor Ard, 1B, Washington State University (SR), 6'1". 235, R/R
Given his build and position, it's not hard to imagine that Ard is a prototypical, power hitting first baseman. He generates some bat speed thanks to good present strength and has translated that into game power in the Pac-12 with a .332/.412/.577 line this year with 12 HR's and 16 2B's. He walked as often as he struck out and presents the profile that epitomizes college slugger.
8th Round (251): Nick Halamandaris, 1B, Stevenson School (CA), 6'1", 220, L/L
There's not a lot of info on this guy, but he profiles as a power bat from a corner position. He is a commit to the recently revived Cal baseball program, but should be signable.
9th Round (281): Jamodrick McGruder, 2B, Texas Tech University (JR), 5'7", 170, L/R
McGruder was a spark plug at the top of the Red Raiders line-up this year. He has excellent speed and uses it well in both taking the extra bag and stealing bases. He has also shown a good approach at the plate and his OBP hovered around .500 for the majority of the year. While he is certainly not physically imposing, McGruder is a quick twitch athlete with some present skills and the potential to hit at the top of an order if everything comes together.
Pike isn't going to blow you away with his stuff, but he is lauded for his good pitchability and command from the left side. He's refined for a high school lefty and the Florida State commit should be signable here. Pike has a smooth, compact, easy delivery and while he doesn't project too much more physically, he's very advanced for a high school arm.
4th Round (131): Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, Rutgers University (SR), 6'2", 210, R/R
Kivlehan is a fascinating story. A football player at Rutgers, he only picked up baseball during his senior season. One would expect him to struggle after having focused on an entirely different sport for all of his college career. Instead, Kivlehan hit .399/.484/.710 en route to winning the Big East Player of the Year award. There's not much video or information on him, but on the stats and story alone, Kivlehan is definitely a prospect to follow.
5th Round (161): Chris Taylor, SS, Virginia University (JR), 6'0", 170, R/R
Taylor is a defense first shortstop who has a lot of value on that side of the ball. He has good actions and hands at short and his plus speed adds to his good range. He can definitely stick there at the next level, but the bat is the question. Taylor is more of a gap-to-gap guy at this point, and he put up a .284/.383/.445 line this year to date at Virginia as their leadoff hitter. If the bat develops, he could earn a spot as a Major League shortstop in a few years.
6th Round (191): Timmy Lopes, SS, Edison HS (CA), 5'11", 180, R/R
Lopes is the younger brother of Christian, a 7th round selection in the Blue Jays organization. He has solid actions and range in the field, but his lack of plus arm strength may force a move to second in the future. He gets good reviews with the bat, while not projecting much power. He makes hard contact and squares the ball up and uses his above-average speed well.
7th Round (221) Taylor Ard, 1B, Washington State University (SR), 6'1". 235, R/R
Given his build and position, it's not hard to imagine that Ard is a prototypical, power hitting first baseman. He generates some bat speed thanks to good present strength and has translated that into game power in the Pac-12 with a .332/.412/.577 line this year with 12 HR's and 16 2B's. He walked as often as he struck out and presents the profile that epitomizes college slugger.
8th Round (251): Nick Halamandaris, 1B, Stevenson School (CA), 6'1", 220, L/L
There's not a lot of info on this guy, but he profiles as a power bat from a corner position. He is a commit to the recently revived Cal baseball program, but should be signable.
9th Round (281): Jamodrick McGruder, 2B, Texas Tech University (JR), 5'7", 170, L/R
McGruder was a spark plug at the top of the Red Raiders line-up this year. He has excellent speed and uses it well in both taking the extra bag and stealing bases. He has also shown a good approach at the plate and his OBP hovered around .500 for the majority of the year. While he is certainly not physically imposing, McGruder is a quick twitch athlete with some present skills and the potential to hit at the top of an order if everything comes together.
10th Round (311): Grady Wood, RHP, Western Oregon State (SR), 6'1", 195
Wood had a very impressive season for Western Oregon. He compiled a 12-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and a .184 batting average against en route to winning Great Northwest Athletic Conference Male Athlete of the Year award. There's very little information available other than statistics, but he certainly put up solid numbers, albeit against weak competition.
Notable Late Rounders:
40th Round: James Kaprielian, RHP
Kaprielian is one of the better high school arms in the class, but will in all likelihood head to UCLA next year as a part of their stellar recruiting class.
Wood had a very impressive season for Western Oregon. He compiled a 12-0 record with a 1.69 ERA and a .184 batting average against en route to winning Great Northwest Athletic Conference Male Athlete of the Year award. There's very little information available other than statistics, but he certainly put up solid numbers, albeit against weak competition.
Notable Late Rounders:
40th Round: James Kaprielian, RHP
Kaprielian is one of the better high school arms in the class, but will in all likelihood head to UCLA next year as a part of their stellar recruiting class.
Mariners Draft Strategy: An Overview
The Mariners last three top picks have worked out quite nicely for them and Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker and Dustin Ackley all look like they have productive Major League careers ahead of them. With the 3rd selection this year, the Mariners are hoping to tab yet another impact talent at the top of a draft. They have a solid $8.233 million to spend on 11 picks in the top ten rounds and have a nice balance of financial flexibility and a strong drafting position. They’ve shown a willingness in the past to take a mixture of high school and college products and we believe they will generally be going for the best player available, regardless of the needs of the organization. If Byron Buxton is available at #3, which is looking less and less likely, we can’t imagine the Mariners will let him slip by. If they are looking for upside at the #3 slot, Carlos Correa could easily be the pick. If they are instead looking for an arm, any of the “Big 3” would fit nicely here as well.
Mock Draft Selection: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (GA)
Mock Draft Selection: Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County HS (GA)
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