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Top 20 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

1. Travis D'Arnaud, C, A-
D’Arnaud has All-Star potential with an excellent bat, hitting for both average and power from the catcher position. He is a solid defender, but has only thrown out between 25-30% of base stealers in his career. He has no speed to speak of and he recently tore his PCL (Posterior Cruciate Ligament) in
his knee, while playing in the PCL (Pacific Coast League). Before the injury he looked primed for a big league promotion, after following up a slow start by coming on very strong the last two months. Even though he may not make his major league debut this season, look for him in Toronto next year.

2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, B+
Syndergaard is a physical specimen with a blistering fastball and very good command. His curve is coming along nicely and he is still working on his changeup, but once everything comes together, he will be a frontline starter in the big leagues.

3. Justin Nicolino, LHP, B+
Nicolino has an excellent feel for pitching with both great control and command to go along with solid present stuff. His stuff will always play up due to his feel and command, even though he does not have ace potential.

4. Daniel Norris, LHP, B+
I saw Norris throw at East Cobb last summer and he may have a higher ceiling than any pitcher in this system, which is saying a lot. He, like Syndergaard, has electric stuff, with a nasty fastball/curveball combination.

5. Jake Marisnick, OF, B+
Marisnick had a breakout season last year as a 20 year old in low-A showing an improved bat in addition to his already good speed and defense. This year, playing in the pitcher friendly Florida State League, he has not been as effective at the plate. He is still stealing a fair amount of bases and producing lots of gap power, but his average and home run numbers are down from a year ago. It will be interesting to see how the bat plays once he moves up to AA.

6. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, B+/B
I watched Sanchez pitch on video a few days before the 2010 draft and immediately fell in love with his combination of both stuff and projectability. He has number 2 starter upside and has been nearly unhittable this year (4.5 H/9) but has walked far too many hitters (5 BB/9). If he can harness his control, look for a potentially filthy rotation in a few years in Toronto.

7. Marcus Stroman, RHP, B
Stroman has ace level stuff, from a small frame, which can create durability concerns. If those concerns become a reality, he could be an elite level closer. For now, however, he looks like a 2/3 starter.

8. Adonys Cardona, RHP, B-/B
Cardona is all projection at this stage, but he has a very live arm, already hitting the mid 90s. He also has potentially above average pitches in his change and curve. He is quite raw at this point, but if it all comes together, along with consistent command he could be a frontline starter. Hard to tell at this stage.

9. Dwight Smith Jr., OF, B-/B
I played against Dwight many years ago at the East Cobb complex and since he hit an absolute bomb of a home run onto the house over the right field fence, he has been a favorite of mine. He is a pure hitter, whose power is a bit underrated at this point. His other tools are solid, but not spectacular and thus it will have to be his bat that carries him, which I think it will.

10. Matt Dean, 3B, B-

11. Matt Smoral, LHP, B-

12. Chase DeJong, RHP, B-

13. Deck McGuire, RHP, B-

14. Jacob Anderson, OF, B-

15. Sean Nolin, LHP, C+

16. Anthony Alford, OF, C+

17. DJ Davis, OF, C+

18. Roberto Osuna, RHP, C+

19. Christian Lopes, 2B, C+

20. A.J. Jimenez, C, C+

21. Tyler Gonzalez, RHP, C+

22. Marcus Knecht, OF, C+

23. Mitch Nay, 3B, C+

24. John Stilson, RHP, C+

25. Michael Crouse, OF, C+

26. Chris Hawkins, OF, C+

27. Kevin Pillar, OF, C+

28. Javier Avendano, RHP, C+

2012 Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Overall Draft Grade: A/A-    

          The Blue Jays did exactly what they needed to do to get the most out of their extra picks under the new CBA. They loaded up on top prep talent with their many early picks and then proceeded to take a slew of college seniors who should sign for well below slot in order to counter the financial burden of their top selections. Those top guys are well worth the money, however, and the Jays got some potential impact talent across the board. Davis and Nay provide an interesting speed and power combination at the plate and Anthony Alford, the two-sport star and Southern Miss commit, adds another wild card to the mix. Stroman has elite level stuff and Smoral, Gonzales and DeJong are one of the best trios of high school arms in any one class this year. While there's not a lot of depth in the late rounds here, the first 7 selections are all potential above-average Major Leaguers, and that's something you can't even think about saying about any other class in this draft. If they can sign all of those seven, the Jays will have one of the most impressive classes in 2012 without a question. Alford who was considered the toughest sign of the crop has already agreed to sign and take on baseball as a summer job, while attending Southern Miss for football.

1st Round (17): D.J. Davis, OF, Stone HS (MS), 6'1", 180, L/L
Davis was initially thought of as only a speedster, but improved reports with the bat had him shooting up draft boards. His speed is still exceptional, and he uses it well on the bases and in the outfield. He can handle center, and while his arm is nothing to write home about, it will be serviceable in center. He profiles as a classic leadoff type and should be able to use his speed to wreak havoc on the basepaths. Davis doesn't have a strong college commitment and should be a relatively easy sign.
D.J. Davis Scouting Report
1st Round (22): Marcus Stroman, RHP, Duke University (JR), 5'9", 190
Stroman was not expected to fall this far and the Jays did well taking him off the board here. Yes, there are durability concerns given his frame, but Stroman has some of the most electric stuff in this class. He put up excellent strikeout numbers at Duke thanks to a fastball that sits in the 93-95 range that he pairs with a slider that has been absolutely filthy at times. Some scouts see him as a reliever, but the Jays will definitely try him as a starter at the next level. 
Marcus Stroman Scouting Report
Supplemental Round (50): Matt Smoral, LHP, Solon HS (OH), 6'8", 220
Thanks to a foot injury that required surgery, Smoral was thought to be a tough sign away from his UNC commit. The Blue Jays signed him for approximately $2 million withing two days of the draft, however, and he's already on his way to one of their affiliates. Before the injury, Smoral was showing huge potential thanks to his massive frame and impressive present stuff. His fastball sits in the 91-92 range and he throws a change-up with the potential to be an above-average offering at the next level. 
Matt Smoral Scouting Report
Supplemental Round (58): Mitch Nay, 3B, Hamilton HS (AZ), 6'3", 195, R/R
The Jays are buying the power bat here and Nay's raw power grades out anywhere from to solidly above-average to plus. He generates good bat speed and can hit the ball a long way. His ability to stick at third and his pure contact skills are question marks, but the power is definitely there. He's not a burner, but he won't clog the bases and he has a strong arm that will play at a corner outfield spot if he's moved.

Supplemental Round (60): Tyler Gonzales, RHP, James Madison HS (TX), 6'2", 175
Gonzales is more of an unrefined power arm at this point, but he has cranked his fastball up into the mid-90s and is an interesting project. He's shown a hard slider that has potential, but there's a significant amount of effort in his delivery and his change-up and command are generally lacking. Regardless, Gonzales was most likely taken here for the arm strength and he's certainly an interesting project.
Tyler Gonzales Scouting Report
2nd Round (81): Chase DeJong, RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS (CA), 6'4", 185
DeJong is yet another intriguing arm in this class. He has good pitchability for a high school arm, and while his fastball isn't overpowering, in the 88-91 range, he shows good secondary stuff for a prep product. His curve looks like it has the chance to be an out pitch at the next level, and his change-up isn't too far behind.
Chase DeJong Scouting Report
3rd Round (112): Anthony Alford, OF, Petal HS (MS), 6'1", 205, R/R
Alford is a two-sport star in football and baseball and rumor has it the Jays have agreed to a deal which allows him to keep playing football at Southern Miss. On the baseball field, Alford is an excellent athlete with plenty of raw tools. He's got well above-average speed and the potential for some power down the line. 
Anthony Alford Scouting Report
4th Round (145): Tucker Donahue, RHP, Stetson University (SR), 6'2", 200
Donahue started the chain of signability picks for the Jays in order to compensate for the unbelievable amount of prep talent they took in the early rounds. He put up good numbers for Stetson and features a low-90s fastball, a slider and a change-up. He'll sign for well under slot.

5th Round (175): Brad Delatte, LHP, Nicholls State University (SR), 6'0", 175
Delatte pitched out of the pen for Nicholls State and is one of many signability picks in these rounds. He should sign for well below slot as a college senior and will help ease the budget of this very top-heavy draft. 

6th Round (205): Eric Phillips, 3B, Georgia Southern University (SR)

7th Round (235): Ian Parmley, OF, Liberty University (SR)

8th Round (265): Harrison Frawley, C, Coastal Carolina University (SR)

9th Round (295): Jordan Leyland, 1B, Asuza Pacific University (SR)

10th Round (325): Alex Azor, OF, United States Naval Academy (SR)  

Notable Later Round Selections: All were in our sleepers section

Round 22: Josh Almonte, OF, Long Island City HS (NY)
Almonte is an athlete with 5 tool potential, but like many raw athletes, his offense lags behind his defense and he has a lot of work to do to become a successful hitter. 

Round 34: Brandon Lopez, SS, American Heritage HS (FL)
Coming out of the Baseball Factory that is American Heritage, Lopez is an excellent defensive shortstop already. He has the tools to succeed at the plate, but is fairly raw with his mechanics on that end of the ball right now.

Round 40: Jose Cuas, SS, Grand Street Campus HS (NY)
Cuas is a very intriguing SS prospect, but has already announced that he will attend the University of Maryland, along with HS teammate Kevin Martir. Reports indicate that had he lowered his bonus demands, the Jays would have taken him in the 10th round.

Blue Jays Draft Strategy: An Overview

          This year the Blue Jays have $8.83 million to spend on 14 picks, which definitely provides them with some flexibility going into draft day. The last two years, the Jays have taken tons of high schoolers and this seems to coincide with the insertion of Alex Anthopoulos into the GM position. They spent around $9 million on 11 picks last year, so it appears as though they can still take quite a few risks at the top. Accordingly, we had them taking Ty Hensley and Stryker Trahan with their top two picks in our mock. I could definitely see them going for some high school talent that falls down some draft boards later on as well due to their financial flexibility. Even though they did not sign their 2011 first round pick, Tyler Beede, they still had a very successful draft and we definitely expect them to go for high upside talent at the top again and to have another successful draft.

Mock Draft Selections: Ty Hensley, RHP, Edmond Santa Fe HS (OK) Stryker Trahan, C, Acadiana HS (LA)  Nolan Fontana, 2B/SS, Florida Austin Maddox, RHP, Florida Dane Phillips, C, Oklahoma City University
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