Top 20 Prospects: Washington Nationals
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, A-/B+
Injuries are a concern, but still has elite level talent with the bat at third.
2. Brian Goodwin, OF, B+
Goodwin can do it all on the field, but is still somewhat raw.
He could be an excellent top of the order hitter once he polishes up his overall
game a bit.
3. Alex Meyer, RHP, B+/B
Huge man with huge potential. Has a chance to be a number 2 starter at the big league
level, needs to continue to improve his consistency and command.
4. Lucas Giolito, RHP, B+/B
If he can prove he is healthy and shows the same kind of stuff
he did in high school, he could easily rank in the A range next
year.
5. Zach Walters, SS/3B, B-/C+
Very intriguing bat with both some power and speed.
6. Matt Skole, 3B, B-/C+
Huge power, will take a walk, but also has swing and miss to his game.
7. Jason Martinson, SS/3B, B-/C+
Very intriguing power/speed combo, but struggles with making contact and is not the
best defensive shortstop.
8. Eury Perez, OF, C+/B-
Extremely fast and good contact hitter, has a very aggressive
approach and no power to speak of.
9. Jeff Kobernus, 2B, C+
Can hit and is very fast. Plays solid defense at second.
10. Tony Renda, 2B, C+
Renda is a solid all around talent. He doesn’t have much pop,
but his speed and hit tools are good to go along with solid defense. Both he and
Kobernus came out of the Cal baseball program.
11. Brett Mooneyham, LHP, C+
The Stanford product could end up as either a starter or
reliever depending on how his control/command hold up. Either way, the stuff is
solid from the left side.
12. Sammy Solis, LHP, C+
Injury has caused him to miss all of this year. Regardless, he
is still quite promising depending on how he returns.
13. Destin Hood, OF, C+
Tool shed who is still learning how to hit, even after all these years.
14. Robert Benincasa, RHP, C+
Former FSU closer. Type of relief arm who could move up the
system quickly.
15. Robbie Ray, LHP, C+
16. Dan Rosenbaum, LHP, C+
17. Michael Taylor, OF, C+
Another tool shed, who still has contact issues.
18. Matt Purke, LHP, C+
Injuries seem to have derailed his previously very promising career
19. Brian Rauh, RHP, C+
Rauh is a very promising young arm from the division III ranks
who could end up as either a number 4 type starter or
reliever.
20. Rick Hague, 2B/SS, C+
Playing in his first full pro season after being selected in the
third round in 2010, he’s a decent hitter and solid defender, likely a utility
guy going forward.
Injuries are a concern, but still has elite level talent with the bat at third.
2. Brian Goodwin, OF, B+
Goodwin can do it all on the field, but is still somewhat raw.
He could be an excellent top of the order hitter once he polishes up his overall
game a bit.
3. Alex Meyer, RHP, B+/B
Huge man with huge potential. Has a chance to be a number 2 starter at the big league
level, needs to continue to improve his consistency and command.
4. Lucas Giolito, RHP, B+/B
If he can prove he is healthy and shows the same kind of stuff
he did in high school, he could easily rank in the A range next
year.
5. Zach Walters, SS/3B, B-/C+
Very intriguing bat with both some power and speed.
6. Matt Skole, 3B, B-/C+
Huge power, will take a walk, but also has swing and miss to his game.
7. Jason Martinson, SS/3B, B-/C+
Very intriguing power/speed combo, but struggles with making contact and is not the
best defensive shortstop.
8. Eury Perez, OF, C+/B-
Extremely fast and good contact hitter, has a very aggressive
approach and no power to speak of.
9. Jeff Kobernus, 2B, C+
Can hit and is very fast. Plays solid defense at second.
10. Tony Renda, 2B, C+
Renda is a solid all around talent. He doesn’t have much pop,
but his speed and hit tools are good to go along with solid defense. Both he and
Kobernus came out of the Cal baseball program.
11. Brett Mooneyham, LHP, C+
The Stanford product could end up as either a starter or
reliever depending on how his control/command hold up. Either way, the stuff is
solid from the left side.
12. Sammy Solis, LHP, C+
Injury has caused him to miss all of this year. Regardless, he
is still quite promising depending on how he returns.
13. Destin Hood, OF, C+
Tool shed who is still learning how to hit, even after all these years.
14. Robert Benincasa, RHP, C+
Former FSU closer. Type of relief arm who could move up the
system quickly.
15. Robbie Ray, LHP, C+
16. Dan Rosenbaum, LHP, C+
17. Michael Taylor, OF, C+
Another tool shed, who still has contact issues.
18. Matt Purke, LHP, C+
Injuries seem to have derailed his previously very promising career
19. Brian Rauh, RHP, C+
Rauh is a very promising young arm from the division III ranks
who could end up as either a number 4 type starter or
reliever.
20. Rick Hague, 2B/SS, C+
Playing in his first full pro season after being selected in the
third round in 2010, he’s a decent hitter and solid defender, likely a utility
guy going forward.
2012 Draft Review: Washington Nationals
Overall Draft Grade: B
This draft is based entirely upon signing Lucas Giolito. He is clearly one of the most impressive talents in the Draft and we're sure that the Nats will do everything in their power to make sure that he signs before the new early deadline. To follow him, Renda and Mooneyham are easy college signs that don't have huge upside, but both show the potential to be productive players at the next level. After the Bay Area pair there's not too much to be excited about until the later rounds, but Nats fans should be ecstatic at the chance to add Giolito into their already impressive group of pitchers.
1st Round (16): Lucas Gilolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA), 6'6", 230
Giolito was in the conversation for the 1:1 slot and would have been the first high school righty every taken with the first overall selection. He was shut down late in the year after a sprained UCL, but all reports look good now and he was throwing from 200+ feet days before the draft. Regardless, if he stays healthy, Giolito is an elite talent with the frame, mentality and power stuff of a future ace. He runs his fastball up into the 95-97 range at its best and complements it with some secondary stuff that all shows potential. His price tag will be huge and this entire draft is based around signing him, but the sky is the limit for Giolito. It's scary to think that the Nationals have gotten Strasburg, Harper, Rendon and now Giolito with their first pick in four consecutive years.
2nd Round (80): Tony Renda, 2B, California University (JR), 5'8", 180, R/R
Renda is the kind of guy who constantly "plays above his tools." He's not a big guy, but he has solid bat speed and projects average power for a middle infielder at the next level. The all-time hit leader at his California high school, the alma mater of Barry Bonds, Renda has shown he can hit at every level and is an interesting follow as a second baseman.
Renda is the kind of guy who constantly "plays above his tools." He's not a big guy, but he has solid bat speed and projects average power for a middle infielder at the next level. The all-time hit leader at his California high school, the alma mater of Barry Bonds, Renda has shown he can hit at every level and is an interesting follow as a second baseman.
3rd Round (111): Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Stanford University (SR), 6'5", 235
Mooneyham has been inconsistent at Stanford, but he has the stuff and size to be able to challenge for a rotation spot at the next level. His fastball sits in the 91-93 with good movement and he complements it with a curve that has the potential to be solid-average of better. He's had some control and command issues at Stanford, but the stuff and frame are certainly intriguing.
4th Round (144): Brandon Miller, OF, Samford University (SR), 6'2", 215, R/R
Miller is a senior sign here that will inevitably contribute toward the effort to bring Giolito into the fold. Miller has some decent raw power and profiles as a right fielder at the next level.
5th Round (174): Spencer Kieboom, C, Clemson University (JR), 6'0", 220, R/R
Kieboom is a very strong defensive catcher with all of the tools to excel behind the dish at the next level. He's got a simple approach and swing at the plate and while he doesn't project to be anything special with the bat, solid defensive catchers always find a place.
6th Round (204): Hayden Jennings, OF, Evangel Christian Academy (LA), 6'0", 170, L/L
7th Round (234): Robert Benincasa, RHP, Florida State University (JR), 6'1", 180
8th Round (264): Stephen Perez, SS, Miami University (JR), 5'11", 175, S/R
9th Round (294): Derek Self, RHP, Lousiville University (SR), 6'3", 205
10th Round (324): Craig Manuel, C, Rice University (SR), 6'1", 205, L/R
Notable Later Round Selections
11th Round: Brian Rauh, RHP, Chapman University
Rauh has a very good combination of stuff and statistical performance and has arguably been the best Division III pitcher in the country the last three years.
25th Round: Freddy Avis, RHP, Menlo School (CA)
Avis' Stanford commitment seems very strong and that doesn't seem like it will change. he is definitely a very intriguing follow throughout his college career, however, as he has good stuff and knows how to pitch
26th Round: Skye Bolt, OF, Holy Innocents HS (GA)
Bolt is a very good all around player, who will most likely head to UNC in the fall. None of his tools stand out but he is solid across the board
27th Round: Cody Poteet, RHP, Christian HS (CA)
Poteet and his nasty curveball will most likely head to UCLA in the fall, but if Giolito decides to head to UCLA instead of signing and there is extra money to spend, he could be the most signable out of the Avis, Bolt, Poteet trio.
Mooneyham has been inconsistent at Stanford, but he has the stuff and size to be able to challenge for a rotation spot at the next level. His fastball sits in the 91-93 with good movement and he complements it with a curve that has the potential to be solid-average of better. He's had some control and command issues at Stanford, but the stuff and frame are certainly intriguing.
4th Round (144): Brandon Miller, OF, Samford University (SR), 6'2", 215, R/R
Miller is a senior sign here that will inevitably contribute toward the effort to bring Giolito into the fold. Miller has some decent raw power and profiles as a right fielder at the next level.
5th Round (174): Spencer Kieboom, C, Clemson University (JR), 6'0", 220, R/R
Kieboom is a very strong defensive catcher with all of the tools to excel behind the dish at the next level. He's got a simple approach and swing at the plate and while he doesn't project to be anything special with the bat, solid defensive catchers always find a place.
6th Round (204): Hayden Jennings, OF, Evangel Christian Academy (LA), 6'0", 170, L/L
7th Round (234): Robert Benincasa, RHP, Florida State University (JR), 6'1", 180
8th Round (264): Stephen Perez, SS, Miami University (JR), 5'11", 175, S/R
9th Round (294): Derek Self, RHP, Lousiville University (SR), 6'3", 205
10th Round (324): Craig Manuel, C, Rice University (SR), 6'1", 205, L/R
Notable Later Round Selections
11th Round: Brian Rauh, RHP, Chapman University
Rauh has a very good combination of stuff and statistical performance and has arguably been the best Division III pitcher in the country the last three years.
25th Round: Freddy Avis, RHP, Menlo School (CA)
Avis' Stanford commitment seems very strong and that doesn't seem like it will change. he is definitely a very intriguing follow throughout his college career, however, as he has good stuff and knows how to pitch
26th Round: Skye Bolt, OF, Holy Innocents HS (GA)
Bolt is a very good all around player, who will most likely head to UNC in the fall. None of his tools stand out but he is solid across the board
27th Round: Cody Poteet, RHP, Christian HS (CA)
Poteet and his nasty curveball will most likely head to UCLA in the fall, but if Giolito decides to head to UCLA instead of signing and there is extra money to spend, he could be the most signable out of the Avis, Bolt, Poteet trio.
Nationals Draft Strategy: An Overview
The Nationals draft strategy last year was pretty clear: they took the best college talent that dropped into their lap and paid whatever it took to sign them. They did not select a high school player until the 16th round and had already handed out $15.4 million in bonuses by their 4th pick. In 2010, they spent around $10 million over the first ten rounds. This year, the Nationals only have $4.436 million to spend on their first 10 selections, and the strategy of paying overslot bonuses to their top selections will certainly have to change. One thing seems pretty clear, however, the Nationals prefer college players. They have only taken 4 high school players (5 if you include Bryce Harper), over the first 30 rounds of the previous two drafts.
We do not believe that this strategy will change this year, especially with considerably less money to spend. As we alluded to in our mock drafts, it would make a lot of sense for them to go for more polish to help out the major league roster sooner rather than later, as the NL East is up for grabs this year and Steven Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman may be on pitch/inning limits going forward. Even though in prior drafts they went for college products with considerably high ceilings such as Alex Meyer, Brian Goodwin, Sammy Solis and Matt Purke, it seems like it would make more sense for them to go with a safer bet, someone like Andrew Heaney or Michael Wacha, if they fall to #16.
Mock Draft Selection: Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State University
We do not believe that this strategy will change this year, especially with considerably less money to spend. As we alluded to in our mock drafts, it would make a lot of sense for them to go for more polish to help out the major league roster sooner rather than later, as the NL East is up for grabs this year and Steven Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman may be on pitch/inning limits going forward. Even though in prior drafts they went for college products with considerably high ceilings such as Alex Meyer, Brian Goodwin, Sammy Solis and Matt Purke, it seems like it would make more sense for them to go with a safer bet, someone like Andrew Heaney or Michael Wacha, if they fall to #16.
Mock Draft Selection: Andrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State University
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